A New World, Reordered

The global order is being renegotiated rather than replaced. New cultural and economic powers are rising from the South, forming trade alliances organised around values rather than geography, while the centre of gravity shifts from military strength toward control of digital infrastructure.

This is the only force Synthesis tracks at high momentum and high volatility simultaneously. Something is definitely happening and its direction is genuinely uncertain — the hardest combination to plan against. Where The Embedded Age offers a clear trajectory and The Vibecession offers variance without direction, this force offers both at once.

Shifting alliances

Emerging economies are consolidating power through new blocs that redefine global governance.

Global South Alliances is the headline driver at +24.1% since 2016, and the proxy behind it is unusual: Google News coverage volume referencing alliances among Global South nations — BRICS, NAM, G77, SCO and similar groupings. Synthesis rates the uncertainty as medium and the rate of change as consistent across Q1/2015 to Q4/2025. It is worth being clear that this measures narrative attention rather than institutional capability. Coverage volume and actual coordinating power are related but not the same thing.

The institutional evidence is nonetheless dense. BRICS agriculture ministers have adopted a joint declaration rejecting unilateral trade barriers. The Indore Declaration places farmers at the centre of the BRICS agenda. Member states have pledged stronger cooperation on food security and digital farming, and Russia has called for joint BRICS food reserves specifically to counter Middle East crisis risk. The FAO representative in Russia frames BRICS agri-food cooperation as shaping the future of global trade, while the FAO itself has published on what happens when the Global South leads. At the World Peace Forum, Mushahid Hussain argued directly that it should.

Bilateral arrangements are multiplying alongside the blocs. Singapore and New Zealand have signed what is described as the world’s first legally binding supply chain resilience pact. New Zealand and India have signed a free-trade deal. Economic Influence of Emerging Markets sits behind this at +3.1% since 2016 — modest against the alliance figure, which suggests narrative is currently running ahead of economic weight.

Cultural gravity shift

Global influence is no longer West-led. Emerging creative industries are setting the stories, aesthetics and values that travel.

Global South Streaming & Entertainment Exports is tracked qualitatively for now, and Brand Finance’s 2026 soft power index is the standing reference for how that redistribution is measured. The more interesting evidence is smaller in scale: Living Koko’s Phoebe Pruess discussing cacao, the lunar cycle and food sovereignty on ABC Pacific is exactly the kind of cultural export that does not register in trade statistics but reshapes what audiences find legitimate.

Food is doing unusually heavy cultural work in this force. The Agricultural and Rural Convention asks what food sovereignty has to do with the new geopolitics of food, and IPES-Food argues local food systems become decisive as prices rise and tensions grow. Food Sovereignty is up 16.7% since 2016 — the second-strongest driver here, and a political concept as much as an agricultural one.

The counter-current is credibility. A cluster of research is converging on greenwashing: Time reports on the scale of meat and dairy industry greenwashing, Faunalytics documents unsustainable promises across both sectors, Net Zero Investor warns the pattern is widespread among food giants, and Guardian-reported research finds supermarket “natural” and “sustainable” claims are largely marketing language. Australia’s ACCC is suing the Grill’d burger chain over alleged greenwashing. Values-based alliances depend on values being verifiable.

Techno-platforms of power

Nations controlling digital infrastructure, data flows and payment rails are gaining systemic economic power.

This is where the force earns the technofeudalism framing in its standfirst. WACC’s work on digital colonialism argues AI infrastructure risks reproducing extractive patterns rather than dissolving them, and The Conversation makes the applied version of the case — AI offers real promise for agriculture, but smallholder farmers risk being left behind entirely. Morningstar reports an AI governance gap in the highly regulated food and beverage sector, with only 41% using enterprise AI tools while informal workforce adoption runs ahead. Governance is lagging use, which is how infrastructure power consolidates quietly.

The physical layer remains stubbornly relevant. The BBC examines the crucial exports beyond oil blocked by a Hormuz closure, and The Straits Times traces how the Iran war is disrupting food supply chains. Harvard’s Salata Institute has published on what war and climate change together mean for staple food prices. New Zealand’s Fertiliser Association has mapped supply chain risk for a single critical input — the kind of specific dependency that becomes leverage.

Nuclear Power is the outlier driver, down 0.8% since 2018, and the only environment-pillar driver in a political force. The 2018 baseline differs from the 2016 used elsewhere here, so it should not be read alongside the others as a ranked figure.

Three shifts to expect

Global power is redistributed through evolving alliances rather than fixed hierarchies. Power moves away from stable hierarchies toward fluid alliances, making influence less predictable and more negotiated.

Economic influence continues shifting toward emerging markets, redefining global leadership. The +3.1% on the emerging markets driver suggests this is early rather than advanced.

Geopolitics settles into sustained tension rather than clear resolution. Not escalation to a break point, and not a return to stability — tension as the standing condition. Geopolitical Tension and Political Stability are both tracked drivers, the latter shared with The Vibecession, where it does similar work.

What to watch

Climate and geopolitics are compounding through the food system specifically. FAO and WMO have jointly warned that extreme heat is pushing global food systems toward the brink, with UN News carrying the same finding. ClimateAi traces how extreme weather is driving cocoa prices and reshaping chocolate. A coffee trader is working to shield Vietnamese growers from weather exposure. The South China Morning Post reports El Niño threatening drought with Chinese food imports at stake. COP30 has been framed as the strongest available opportunity to address food systems directly.

Visa Regulations remains tracked but unquantified, and is the driver most likely to move sharply if the tension shift plays out as described.

Eight drivers sit behind this force. Four carry movement figures; visa regulations, political stability, geopolitical tension and Global South streaming exports are tracked qualitatively.