Methodology

We begin with the most important drivers of change.

But the world never changes because of a single event.

It shifts because hundreds of signals convering—quietly, irreversibly.

From policy shifts to ecosystem degradation to cultural trends, we identify 50 drivers of change most likely to shape the future of food, health and the planet.

We track the historical pattern of each signal and explore the full trajectory of where it could go next.

Let’s start with a single driver: arable land.

Declining - but by how much, and how fast?

We capture how the drivers interact with each other, using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping.

We map how they push, amplify, or dampen each other, causing ripple effects across the entire ecosystem.

Taking all the interconnected lessons of history as our foundation and starting point, we then look forward, and simulate what could be.

Using Monte Carlo simulation to introduce randomness, we model 100,000 plausible futures.

Each one a unique combination of how the 50 drivers of change can interact.

Twist the dial on one driver, what happens to everything else?

We find patterns in the chaos.

We cluster thousands of similar future outcomes using machine learning to reveal distinct scenario families and recurring patterns that signal what to prepare for.

Each scenario reflects and reshapes how people live, eat and buy. It impacts how governments respond, how regulations evolve.

Which businesses succeed or fall behind. Ultimately, which businesses will still be here in 10 years.

We bring these futures to life in the most vivid way possible.

Since 2022, we have been collaborating with chefs, startups, multinationals, nutritionists and venture capitalists to turn these future worlds into tangible experiences.